Business cycle dating committee members
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U. A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators.Payroll employment, the number of filled jobs in the economy based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' large survey of employers, reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined in every month since then.An alternative measure of employment, measured by the BLS's household survey, reached a peak in November 2007, declined early in 2008, expanded temporarily in April to a level below its November 2007 peak, and has declined in every month since April 2008.Thus, the currently available estimates of quarterly aggregate real domestic production do not speak clearly about the date of a peak in activity.
Because the real value of imports declined substantially over the relevant period, the measure understates the growth of output.
The deduction of transfer payments places the data closer to the desired measure, real gross domestic income.
To adjust personal income less transfer payments from nominal to real terms (that is, to remove the effects of price changes), the committee uses the deflator for gross domestic product.
In its deliberations, the committee relied on a number of monthly and quarterly economic indicators published by government agencies.
The Appendix to this announcement lists these indicators and their sources.